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UN united but will North Korea listen?

// 16.10.2006 06:20 //

The Security Council vote imposing sanctions on North Korea is a significant demonstration of international solidarity against a rogue state but whether it will force North Korea to rethink its nuclear programme is another matter.

And the extent to which the measures will be applied also remains to be seen. Much will depend on China.

The United States had to make concessions to keep both Russia and China on board, but nevertheless the Chinese acceptance of what amounts to a blockade of nuclear and missile technology into and out of North Korea is an important development.

Trade in heavy conventional weapons, including tanks, combat helicopters and aircraft, warships and anything that might further the development of weapons of mass destruction is also banned.

China is unwilling to contemplate an end to the regime in North Korea (so is not stopping its vital supplies of food and oil) but is also unwilling to accept its client state going too far out on a limb.

"Symbolic dagger"

Both China and Russia insisted that the sanctions be applied under Article 41 which means they have to be economic in nature and not military in threat.

They are however still under Chapter VII which means they must be carried out by all member states.

A ban on selling luxury goods to the North has been thrown in as a small and probably symbolic dagger aimed at Kim Jong-il.

He is known to like the finer things in life and is now due, according to John Bolton, the US ambassador at the UN, to go on a "diet".

"Persons and entities" involved in banned trade will have foreign funds frozen and will face travel bans.

The vote is perhaps a pointer to the way China intends to conduct itself in the world as its influence increases - with caution and conditions, but with co-operation as well.

China has its reservations about, and will not implement, a call on member states to check North Korean cargo (by implication it means by land, sea or air) for contraband

But it did not veto the proposal, while protecting what it saw at its own interests in avoiding a potential physical confrontation.

United States policy

The vote also says something about the current state of play in the foreign policy of the Bush administration. It knows the limits of its military power in this case and cannot afford to attack North Korea so has settled for economic action through the United Nations. All eyes will watch to see if it chooses a similar path with Iran.

On the other hand, the fact remains that international pressure on North Korea of one kind or another has not worked.

Nor has international inducement. The North agreed in the six-party talks last September to give up its nuclear plans and was rewarded with a promise of electricity supplies and mutual assurances with the US that they would "exist peacefully together".

A senior British official remarked on Thursday that the Security Council was unusually united at the moment.

The next big task for it will be to consider what to do about Iran's nuclear activities and it will be interesting to see if this unity survives that.

Containment

The North Koreans have blamed the United States for what they call "economic hostility" and it is unlikely that they will resume negotiations until they have calmed down on that front. But it is not known if that claim is a reason for their action on nuclear weapons or an excuse.

Whether they really will re-enter serious talks has to be open to serious doubt in any case.

What the North means by "economic hostility" is an American Treasury-led assault on its dollar counterfeiting operations which, the US Treasury said in 2005, were based in a bank in Macao.

This bank closed down its North Korean accounts and the cut-off has apparently greatly hindered the means by which North Korea gets its foreign currency, largely because other banks have been frightened off from dealing with the North.

The sanctions policy and the lack of a military option basically means that containment is the order of the day for the indefinite future.

The best hope now might have to be that one day the North's self-imposed and self-glorified isolation will implode - and not with a bang.

Paul Reynolds



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